Diego Vallarino, PhD - Ideas

One Year of DeepSeek: Watching the AI Race from Washington.The next phase of the AI era will be less about spectacular breakthroughs and more about who can transform intelligence into a ubiquitous input to growth. It has been just over a year since DeepSeek entered the global AI landscape, and I have had the unusual vantage point of living through this mome

A Quantitative Political Economy in a Geopolitically Fragmented World1. From Market Movements to Political Signals At first glance, the joint evolution of the Dow Jones, the S&P 500, Tesla, gold, and the U.

The Real Strategic Risk Is Not What You Get Wrong, It’s What You Keep Talking About.Over the last year, I’ve sat in dozens of meetings in Washington, DC. More recently, I had similar conversations in New York, taking advantage of the holidays to reconnect with friends across finance, technology, and policy.

AI Adoption: A Strategic Responsibility for Boards in Reorganizing Work.Last week, I had the opportunity to meet with colleagues and business leaders in New York and Philadelphia. Despite differences in sector and company size, a common theme emerged in every conversation: artificial intelligence is no longer peripheral—it is now central to corporate strategy.

This Halloween, I Fear Linearity More Than Monsters: Why GAT Beats DiD for Modern CausalityEvery year around Halloween, we enjoy the thrill of imaginary fears—ghosts, monsters, shadows moving in the dark. But as a data scientist and economist, my real nightmare is different.

Can Data Alone Reduce Poverty in Emerging Economies?Introduction: The Promise and the Question The debate about poverty reduction often revolves around familiar tools: social transfers, targeted subsidies, or labor market reforms. Yet, a quieter revolution is underway—one that asks whether data itself can act as a redistributive asset.

Why Firms Fail Even When Management Gets It Right.How Much Firm Survival Heterogeneity Is Structurally Mediated? Boards are trained to look inward when performance deteriorates or risk materializes. The standard diagnostic sequence is familiar: Was the strategy flawed? Did management execute poorly? Were incentives misaligned? Did leadership undere

The day I uncovered structural alpha from Open Banking networksLet economic intuition guide the machine learning. And insist that any alpha story be as statistically rigorous as it is economically coherent.

Second-Best AI: Structural Constraints and Institutional Opportunities in Latin America.1. Situation Despite the growing global prominence of artificial intelligence (AI), Latin America exhibits a highly unequal and fragmented insertion into this new technological frontier.

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